Inside the Global IPO Market Comeback
Justin Kotzin, Managing Director and Head of Capital Markets at General Atlantic, points to four key factors that will continue to drive successful launches.
Investors began the year with high expectations for the IPO market. With a deep global pipeline of noteworthy growth companies, expectations of falling interest rates, and a surge in equity indices to all-time highs, conditions appeared ripe for a quick resurgence in capital markets activity. Yet muted market offerings in the first quarter of the year and volatility post Liberation Day halted a cohort of companies on the cusp of their IPO launch.
The volatility shock ultimately proved short-lived and market indices have pushed to record levels. Robust issuance activities continued through the summer, which is typically a quieter window for IPOs. This was followed by seven IPOs launched the week post Labor Day, culminating in the busiest week for IPO pricings since 2021.
While headwinds ranging from the U.S. government shutdown to lofty valuation marks from years ago have weighed on market activity, there continues to be strong demand for scaled, high-growth companies in desirable sectors. We have been encouraged by the recent IPOs of GA portfolio companies across the globe, including Swiss Marketplace’s $1.3 billion offering in September and the $155M listing of India’s Rubicon Research in October. We see four main factors that will likely continue to drive successful IPOs:
On-theme sectors – such as Fintech, Enterprise Software, AI, Crypto, High-Growth Consumer and Defense Technology – have captured investor attention at a time when valuations of mega-cap AI and growth firms have expanded. The IPO successes in these verticals are highly relevant and bode well for companies currently in the GA IPO pipeline.
Risk appetites for new deals remain high given that many are priced at fair discounts to their public peers. Software firm Figma, for instance, surged more than 50% since its $1.4 billion U.S. offering, creating a gain of $715 million for IPO investors through October 31st. Crypto firm Bullish, meanwhile, has jumped 37% since its nearly $1.3 billion debut, creating a gain of $468 million for IPO investors over the same time frame.
Quality growth at scale will be necessary for robust demand. Investors will need to have confidence in top-line model visibility. Overall, companies should ideally be EBITDA positive or have a path to becoming so within four quarters to attract ample attention. Larger companies will also likely have an easier path. While there will be exceptions, we anticipate that investors will gravitate toward companies with an initial offering size of at least $400 million.
Brand management and familiarity will be key to secure investor confidence. We expect that companies will place a higher emphasis on developing rapport with blue chip public investors well ahead of their IPO, collecting early investor feedback which will be paramount to setting the initial range correctly and driving early momentum and demand post IPO launch.
Beat-and-raise model plays a crucial part in post-IPO performance. Some IPO issuers’ share price have come down meaningfully after their first or second quarters as a public company, serving as a reminder that issuers must prepare for a steady beat & raise cadence post-IPO. The technical and retail-driven outperformance in the days after IPO often returns to fundamentals during the first year post-IPO.
With public investors starved for new ideas outside of mega-cap tech, we believe that the best is yet to come. Many high-quality global private companies will likely go public over the next 12 to 18 months, reestablishing the IPO market after nearly three years of closure. While investors are going to pick their spots, we expect to see above-average IPO volumes globally throughout 2026 driven by companies with attractive financial profiles. GA is actively working with numerous portfolio companies looking to target listings in the near and medium term.
1Dealogic, from January 1 to October 31, 2025. For global IPOs (excluding China A-shares but inclusive of Hong Kong A-to-H listings) greater than $100M and exclude SPACs, Closed End Funds, BDCs. Sector classification at GA’s discretion.
This material has been prepared by General Atlantic for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, legal, or other professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Any forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
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